Streetlights and shadows

Debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. Takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Offers realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. Provides many examples, ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in the Patrick O'Brian Master and Commander novels, to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others did not. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything. From publisher description.